Multiorgan impairment in low-risk individuals with post-COVID-19 syndrome: a prospective, community-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess medium-term organ impairment in symptomatic individuals following recovery from acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. DESIGN: Baseline findings from a prospective, observational cohort study. SETTING: Community-based individuals from two UK centres between 1 April and 14 September 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals ≥18 years with persistent symptoms following recovery from acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and age-matched healthy controls. INTERVENTION: Assessment of symptoms by standardised questionnaires (EQ-5D-5L, Dyspnoea-12) and organ-specific metrics by biochemical assessment and quantitative MRI. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Severe post-COVID-19 syndrome defined as ongoing respiratory symptoms and/or moderate functional impairment in activities of daily living; single-organ and multiorgan impairment (heart, lungs, kidneys, liver, pancreas, spleen) by consensus definitions at baseline investigation. RESULTS: 201 individuals (mean age 45, range 21-71 years, 71% female, 88% white, 32% healthcare workers) completed the baseline assessment (median of 141 days following SARS-CoV-2 infection, IQR 110-162). The study population was at low risk of COVID-19 mortality (obesity 20%, hypertension 7%, type 2 diabetes 2%, heart disease 5%), with only 19% hospitalised with COVID-19. 42% of individuals had 10 or more symptoms and 60% had severe post-COVID-19 syndrome. Fatigue (98%), muscle aches (87%), breathlessness (88%) and headaches (83%) were most frequently reported. Mild organ impairment was present in the heart (26%), lungs (11%), kidneys (4%), liver (28%), pancreas (40%) and spleen (4%), with single-organ and multiorgan impairment in 70% and 29%, respectively. Hospitalisation was associated with older age (p=0.001), non-white ethnicity (p=0.016), increased liver volume (p<0.0001), pancreatic inflammation (p<0.01), and fat accumulation in the liver (p<0.05) and pancreas (p<0.01). Severe post-COVID-19 syndrome was associated with radiological evidence of cardiac damage (myocarditis) (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In individuals at low risk of COVID-19 mortality with ongoing symptoms, 70% have impairment in one or more organs 4 months after initial COVID-19 symptoms, with implications for healthcare and public health, which have assumed low risk in young people with no comorbidities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04369807; Pre-results.

Obesity as a driver of international differences in COVID-19 death rates.

AIM: To determine what proportion of the inter-country variation in death rates can be explained in terms of obesity rates and other known risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). MATERIALS AND METHODS: COVID-19 death rates from 30 industrialized countries were analysed using linear regression models. Covariates modelled population density, the age structure of the population, obesity, population health, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), ethnic diversity, national temperature and the delay in the government imposing virus control measures. RESULTS: The multivariable regression model explained 63% of the inter-country variation in COVID-19 death rates. The initial model was optimized using stepwise selection. In descending order of absolute size of model coefficient, the covariates in the optimized model were the obesity rate, the hypertension rate, population density, life expectancy, the percentage of the population aged older than 65 years, the percentage of the population aged younger than 15 years, the diabetes rate, the delay in imposing national COVID-19 control measures, per capita GDP and mean temperature (with a negative coefficient indicating an association between higher national temperatures and lower death rates). CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of the inter-country variation in COVID-19 death rates can be explained by differences in obesity rates, population health, population densities, age demographics, delays in imposing national virus control measures, per capita GDP and climate. Some of the unexplained variation is probably attributable to inter-country differences in the definition of a COVID-19 death and in the completeness of the recording of COVID-19 deaths.